A time series modelling and forecasting of under-5 mortality rate in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper applies an appropriate univariate time series model to examine the trend in the Under-5 Mortality Rate in Nigeria. Fifty-seven years data, ranging from 1964-2020, were obtained from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation website for this study. The empirical study revealed that the most adequate model for the under-5 mortality rates is ARIMA(1,1,0). The adequacy of the fitted model was determined and 10 years forecast of Under-5 mortality rates in Nigeria was made. With the forecast series, we found a steady decrease in the rate, which was consistent with the trends in the original series; indicating that the government and stakeholders’ efforts over the years in Nigeria are yielding encouraging results that would in the long run, lead to a significant drop in the under-5 mortality rate in the country. However, given the forecast results of this research (of approximately 56 deaths per 1000 live births  in 2030), the dreams of achieving SDG goals of 25 per 1000 live births by 2030 in Nigeria may not be realistic unless drastic measures are taken.