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Published:
Dec 12, 2019DOI:
10.4314/njt.v38i4.7Keywords:
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Main Article Content
A Markov Chain Analysis of effect of traffic law enforcement on road traffic accidents rate in Ogun State, Nigeria
Abstract
Ogun State is known for road traffic accidents and fatalities. Out of the 36 states in Nigeria, five states usually combine to give 50% of accidents recorded in the country and Ogun State is among these states. Ten years accident and traffic violation data obtained from Ogun State Traffic Compliance and Enforcement Corps (TRACE) were used to assess the effect of traffic law enforcement on road traffic accidents rate in the state using Markov chain model. Markov chain model analysis revealed that drivers in Ogun State committed unsafe acts (overspeeding, Using mobile phone while driving and driving without driver’s license) 55 times and unsafe condition (driving without using seatbelt) 16 times before experiencing fatality or permanent disability. The study also revealed that 46% of drivers that committed unsafe acts and 13% of drivers that committed unsafe condition left driving with fatality. While 176% of drivers that committed unsafe acts and 58% of drivers that committed unsafe condition left driving with permanent injury. From the result of the study, traffic law enforcement in Ogun state was not adequate and effective.
Keywords: Markov chain analysis, traffic law enforcement, road traffic accident, unsafe acts, unsafe conditions, fatality, permanent injury
