Clinical Predictors of Covid‑19 Mortality in a Tertiary Hospital in Lagos, Nigeria: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: The predictors of mortality among patients presenting with severe to critical disease in Nigeria are presently unknown.  

Aim: The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19 presenting for admission in a tertiary  referral hospital in Lagos, Nigeria.

Patients and Methods: The study was a retrospective study. Patients’ sociodemographics,  clinical characteristics, comorbidities, complications, treatment outcomes, and hospital duration were documented. Pearson’s Chi-square,  Fischer’s Exact test, or Student’s t-test were used to assess the relationship between the variables and mortality. To compare the  survival experience across medical comorbidities, Kaplan Meir plots and life tables were used. Univariable and multivariable Cox- proportional hazard analyses were conducted.

Results: A total of 734 patients were recruited. Participants’ age ranged from five months  to 92 years, with a mean ± SD of 47.4 ± 17.2 years, and a male preponderance (58.5% vs. 41.5%). The mortality rate was 9.07 per thousand  person-days. About 73.9% (n = 51/69) of the deceased had one or more co-morbidities, compared to 41.6% (252/606) of those discharged.  Patients who were older than 50 years, with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic renal illness, and cancer had a  statistically significant relationship with mortality.

Conclusion: These findings call for a more comprehensive approach to the control of  non-communicable diseases, the allocation of sufficient resources for ICU care during outbreaks, an improvement in the quality of health  care available to Nigerians, and further research into the relationship between obesity and COVID-19 in Nigerians.