The Accuracies of Abdominal Computed Tomography and the Neutrophil‑to‑lymphocyte Ratio used to Predict the Development of Clinically Severe Acute Cholecystitis in Elderly Patients Visiting an Emergency Department

Abstract

Background: Mortality in patients with severe acute cholecystitis (AC) remains high, and the prognosis for elderly patients tends to be poor. A comparative analysis of clinical, laboratory, and abdominal computed tomography (CT) parameters was conducted in this study to investigate the effectiveness of each index for predicting clinically severe AC in elderly patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods: This was a single‑center, retrospective study that included 156 patients (≥65 years of age) with AC who were admitted in the ED between January 2012 and December 2014. Parameters including age, gender, initial clinical findings, laboratory findings, and CT findings in the ED were examined for their ability to predict severity. Results: Forty‑five patients were diagnosed with clinically severe AC. The white blood cell count, neutrophil count, neutrophil‑to‑lymphocyte ratio (NLR), C‑reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, protein, albumin, and prothrombin time/International Normalized Ratio values were significantly higher in the severe group than in the nonsevere group (P < 0.05). In addition, the CT parameters of increased pericholecystic fat stranding and pericholecystic fluid collection were significantly higher in the severe group than in the nonsevere group (P < 0.001, P < 0.001). Increased pericholecystic fat stranding (odds ratio [OR], 8.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.29–29.22; P = 0.001), pericholecystic fluid collection (OR, 6.55; 95% CI, 1.39–30.92; P = 0.018), and an NLR cutoff value of 9.9 (OR, 4.20; 95% CI, 1.01–17.53; P = 0.049) were independent predictors of severe AC in elderly patients. Conclusions: The CT parameters of increased pericholecystic fat stranding and pericholecystic fluid collection with an NLR cutoff of 9.9 were useful for predicting the severity of AC in elderly patients in the ED.

Keywords: Aged, cholecystitis, emergencies, multidetector computed tomography, prognosis