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Maize Supply Response To Cross Price Change In Nigeria (1990-2020)
Abstract
The study examined maize supply response to cross price changes in Nigeria. Time series data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization between 1990 and 2020. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillip Peron tests were used to ascertain the stationarity status of the series. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to analyze the data. Validity of the estimates was confirmed through normality and structural stability tests. Findings showed that the normalized coefficients of sorghum and millet prices were negative and statistically significant (p<0.05), suggesting that these crops were competitive with maize. Conversely, the normalized coefficient of rice was statistically significant (p<0.05) but positively signed, indicating that rice was supplementary to maize in supply. Findings further showed that there was unidirectional causality from sorghum price to maize price and from maize price to rice price. Study concluded that as competitive crops to maize, increase in sorghum and millet prices can induce crowd-out effect on maize enterprise. It is therefore recommended that maize dealers keep a close watch and respond appropriately to price change in sorghum and millet crops in order to achieve sustainable maize production and subsequent supply.
