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Apr 30, 2021Keywords:
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Econometric trend assessment and impact of climate change on cocoa output in Nigeria: 1975 – 2018
Abstract
The study assessed the trend and impact of climatic change on output of cocoa crop in Nigeria from 1975-2018. Secondary data were used for the study. The data were analyzed by means of log linear trend analysis, quadratic equation, means and percentages and ordinary least square regression. Findings showed that cocoa output and climatic parameters of rainfall, temperature, radiation, relative humidity and sunshine exhibited significant positive trends during the 1975 -2018 period. Cocoa output had a compound growth rate of 2.0% per annum, while the climatic parameters of temperature, rainfall, radiation, sunshine and relative humidity had a compound rate of growth of 0.1%, 0.7%, 0.9%, 1.5% and 0.8% per annum respectively. Cocoa output and temperature showed stagnation in growth during the period under study. There were no significant differences in the average rate of growth between either of cocoa and each pair of the selected climatic parameters considered. In the long run, cocoa output was influenced by current values of area harvested of cocoa, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine and time variable, while, in the short run, cocoa output was influenced by one year lag values of area harvested of cocoa, cocoa output, rainfall, radiation, relative humidity, sunshine and temperature based on the specified model. There was a fast adjustment to long run equilibrium among the short run independent variables that estimated the response of cocoa output to climatic change. The study shows that climatic change affected the production of the cocoa in Nigeria within the period under study. It is therefore, recommended that, if cocoa output is to be increased and sustained, those activities that encourage global warming should be avoided where possible or reduced to a bearable minimum in Nigeria.
