Descriptive epidemiology and mortality risk factors of COVID-19 outbreak in Delta State, Nigeria, March - August 2020

Abstract

Introduction: The highly contagious Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first confirmed in Nigeria on February 27, 2020. In Delta State, the first COVID-19 case was recorded on April 7, 2020, which spread across the state. We characterized the COVD-19 pandemic in Delta State in terms of person, place, and time, and determined the risk factors for COVID-19 mortality. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Delta State between March 23 to August 17, 2020. We obtained line-lists of 5,917 COVID-19 patients, cleaned and analyzed sociodemographic, clinical characteristics and outcome variables using IBM SPSS Statistics 25. We calculated frequencies, proportions, mean and standard deviation (SD). Bivariate and multivariate logistics regression analysis were conducted to determine the risk factors of COVID-19 mortality, adjusted-odds-ratios were reported at 95% confidence interval and p-value set at 5% significance level. Results: From March-August 2020, 1,605 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 47 deaths (case-fatality-rate 2.9%) were recorded. Majority were aged 20-39 years 675 (42.1%) while 1,064 (66.3%) were males (mean age 39±15years). Persons aged ≥60years were more likely to die from COVID-19 than younger cases (aOR: 11.0; 95% CI: 4.9-24.4) while Symptomatic positive cases at time of test were more likely to die than those who were not (aOR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.3-7.5). Conclusion: Males in the youthful age-group were mostly affected. Independent predictors of mortality were being elderly or symptomatic at time of testing. Strengthening case management to target symptomatic patients and intensifying sensitization activities targeting youthful males and elderly persons, are important to reduce mortality.