Development of a Predictive Model for Road Traffic Accident Involvement in Southwest Nigeria: A Case Study of Ekiti, Osun, and Oyo State

Abstract

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are critical global issue, resulting in over 1.3 million deaths annually, with the burden disproportionately affecting low and middle income countries like Nigeria. Thus, the objective of this paper is to develop a predictive model for Road Traffic Accident Involvement in Southwest Nigeria: A Case Study of Ekiti, Osun, and Oyo States using appropriate standard methods after collecting accident data from relevant agencies for a period of ten years (2014-2023). The results indicate a strong correlation between accident cases and the number of people involved, with fatal and minor accidents having the most significant effects. The model explains 75.5% of the variance in accident outcomes, offering insights into predictive trends that can inform road safety interventions. The study highlights the importance of data-driven approaches in mitigating RTAs and improving road safety management in the study region. Recommendations include stricter traffic law enforcement, enhanced road maintenance, and safety education initiatives to reduce the frequency and severity of accidents in the region.