Analysis of the Supply Response of Maize Producers in Nigeria

Abstract

The research work analyzed the supply response of maize producers in Nigeria and its implication for agricultural trade. The period covered was 1987-2007 (20 years) and data were collected on import quantity and value, export quantity and value, price of maize, price of its substitute, output and hectarage within the time period. FAO statistics data base was the source of data. The result showed that the trade balance for maize is negative N – 2,453,550 indicating that most of the maize consumed was imported. Exchange rate used was 150 naira to 1 dollar. Hectarage decreased at the rate of 5.0 x 103% while import quantity, export quantity and price increased at a compound rate of 3.82 x 102%, 4.68 x 102% and 3.0 x 103% respectively. A deceleration in export quantity was observed as the t2 value was negative, the coefficients for hectarage was also negative showing a deceleration. However, there was acceleration in maize price as the t2 value was positive and significant at 5% probability level. The R2 value was 77% indicating that 77% of the variation in maize supplied was explained by the estimated values. It was also significant at 1% level of probability indicating goodness of fit of the regression line. Due to the increased demand for and increased use of maize, it is recommended that maize producers should be provided with essential input at subsidized rate so as to increase their output to meet the demand. In addition, maize import should therefore be reduced to strengthen local production and high yielding maize varieties should be developed.

Keywords: producers; Agricultural Trade; Export Quantity; Maize price