Forecasting Health outcomes to Envision Health strategies in Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract
Background: Universal health coverage is the main goal of the health sector in the coming decade for Ethiopia in the country’s transition to a middle-income state. We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017-2040 forecasting study to support Ethiopia’s envisioning strategies with baseline and targets.
Methods:The research utilized 2017 forecasts from the Global Burden of Disease, focusing on Ethiopia. The forecasts included 250 causes and causes of death, spanning from 2017 to 2040. The study examined various parameters, including life expectancy, death rates, and premature mortality rates. It employed broader and detailed categories from the Global Burden of Disease, accompanied by 95% uncertainty intervals.
Results: In Ethiopians, life expectancy is expected to increase from 66 years (64-68.5) in 2017 to 73.8 years (70.3-77.3) in 2040. In 2040, the all-cause age-standardized death rate will be 854 per 100,000. Projected age-standardized death rates from 2017 to 2040 due to non-communicable diseases and injuries showed a smaller reduction of 26% and 23%, respectively, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders decreased by 53%. In 2040, cardiovascular and neoplasms are projected to cause age-standardized death rates of 224.7 and 137.8 per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardized premature mortality percentage contribution of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders altogether declined from 62.4% in 1990, 45% in 2018, and 34% in 2040, whereas non-communicable diseases contribution increased from 25.2% in 1990, 46% in 2019 and 54% in 2040.
Conclusions:This major life expectancy gain is expected to be attributed to further reductions in major communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes of death. Ethiopia is more likely to achieve the success of lower middle-income countries in terms of life expectancy. However less likely to achieve the success of upper middle-income countries by 2040. Non-communicable disease and injuries are expected to be leading causes from 2017 through 2040 that need more emphasis on the country's envisioning plans and strategies. This finding could help to strengthen the health care system, devise prevention and control strategies, and implement Best Buy interventions for NCDs and Injuries while addressing the unfinished agenda of communicable diseases and others. Providing subnational forecasting results could also be helpful in understanding projected progress and disparities between regional states to devise relevant strategies and interventions. There is also a need to improve quality data availability and accessibility to produce reliable decision-making results. [Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2023;37 (SI-2)]
Keywords: Forecasting, health outcomes, envisioning strategy, Ethiopia