Determinants of crop choice in North Shewa, Ethiopia: A fractional multinomial approach

Abstract

Rapid population growth and climate change remain challenges of addressing food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Improving productivity and commercialization of smallholder famers are recognized as effective strategies in addressing food security and sustainable agriculture. Crop choice is a tool for efficient utilization of land, stabilizing food prices and creating a balanced food system. Despite the presence of national agricultural output growth in Ethiopia in recent years, there is widespread concern that the contribution of agricultural output to gross domestic product is below its potential. To find ways to increase smallholders’ crop production and productivity and achieve food security, this study investigated factors determining crop choice in North Shewa Ethiopia. A total of 392 farmers were selected using a Multi-stage random sampling technique. A schedule interview using questionnaire was used to collect cross-sectional data from smallholder farmers, while focus group discussions were organized to supplement the quantitative analysis. Results from descriptive statistics revealed that major sources of income were crop production activities. Findings also revealed that households had acquired land through redistribution and purchasing. The study also revealed that market-associated problems including transportation, weak land contractual enforcements, and inadecquacy of wage laborers during harvesting negatively affect farm income. The study found sorghum, teff, onion and mungbean as dominant crops covering 95 % of the total cultivated land. The finding also indicated that land allocation for each crop is interdependent between crop types and between households through their socio-economic facts. The Fractional multinomial model indicates that market distance and irrigation use were found to influence all four crop shares. The analysis also predicts the association of each variable with each crop share in the form of average marginal effects. The key policy implication is that optimal crop choice and sustainable crop production could easily be achieved through market related mechanisms like insurance and contractual farming.