A hydrological perspective of the February 2000 floods : a case study in the Sabie River catchment

Abstract

The exceptionally heavy rains which fell over the north-eastern parts of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe during February 2000 resulted in disastrous flooding, loss of hundreds of lives and severe damage to infrastructure. The objective of the study reported in this paper is to assess the severity, from a probabilistic perspective, and spatial variability of the extreme rainfall and flooding which occurred in the north-eastern part of South Africa during February 2000. This is performed for events ranging from 1 to 7 days in duration using the Sabie River catchment, upstream of the South African/Mozambique border, as an example. The analyses indicate that the floods experienced in the Sabie catchment during February 2000 were the result of rare rainfall with return periods in excess of 200 years in parts of the catchment. The extent of the extreme rainfall increased for longer durations. The magnitudes of the February 2000 floods were such that many gauging stations did not function and numerous gauging structures were inundated. Hence, a modelling approach was adopted to investigate the spatial variability, magnitudes and probabilities of the floods which occurred during February 2000 in the Sabie catchment. The return periods of simulated runoff depths for durations of 1 to 7 days generally exceeded 50 years for the upper and middle portions of the catchment and 200 years in some parts of the Sabie catchment. Hence, some extremely large and rare flow depths were experienced and the spatial variability of the return periods associated with the simulated runoff depths varied substantially within the catchment.


WaterSA Vol.27(3) 2001: 325-332