A possibilistic approach to diverse-stressor aquatic ecological risk estimation

Abstract

A possibilistic approach to assess the risk of co-occurring stressors in an aquatic ecosystem based on the use of fuzzy sets is illustrated at the hand of a hypothetical case study. There are two aspects of importance: a fuzzy stressor response relationship where the response may have reference to a lower level end-point, and a rule-based inference model relating the occurrence of low-level stressors to a high-level ecological goal such as sustainability. The stressor-response is expressed as a conditional possibility. The possibility and necessity measures of the disjunctive composition of the stressor-response with the possibility distribution of the stressors yield an estimate of the ecological risk. Such a possibilistic approach may well serve as a screening procedure in multiple stressor resource management when only qualitative risk assessments are needed.


WaterSA Vol.27(3) 2001: 293-302