3-D numerical modelling of groundwater flow for scenario-based analysis and management

Abstract

In recent years, extensive competition for groundwater use among different consumers has exploited major freshwater aquifers in Pakistan. There is an urgent need for appraisal of this precious resource followed by some mitigation strategies. This modelling study was conducted in the mixed cropping zone of the Punjab, Pakistan. Both remote sensing and secondary data were utilized to achieve objectives of this study. The data related to piezometric water levels, canal gauges, well logs, meteorological and lithological information were collected from Punjab Irrigation Department (PID), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Groundwater flow models for both steady and transient conditions were set-up using FEFLOW-3D. Water balance components and recharge were estimated using empirical relations and inverse modelling approaches. Both manual and automated approaches were utilized to calibrate the models. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was performed to see the response of model output against different model input parameters. Followed by calibration and validation, the model was run for different management scenarios, including lining of canal sections, minimization of field percolation, and change of groundwater abstraction. The study results show a drop in groundwater levels for almost all scenarios. The highest negative change was observed for the 4th scenario (i.e. 25% increase in groundwater pumping over a 10-year period), with a value of 3.73 m, by ignoring very wet summer and winter seasons. For normal weather conditions, the highest negative change was observed for the 4th scenario with a value of 2.91 m followed by 2.68 m for the 3rd scenario (i.e. 50% reduction in canal seepage and field percolation over a 10-year period). For very wet summer and winter seasons, only one positive change was observed, for the 5th scenario (i.e. 25% decrease in groundwater pumping during 10 years period), with a value of 1.17 m. The changes for all other scenarios were negative. The mitigation strategy may include less groundwater pumping, by supporting cultivation of low delta crops and adjusting cropping patterns considering canal water supplies. It is further suggested to support current modelling results by incorporating more detailed information on cropping and by exploring the effect of climate change.

Keywords: numerical modelling, sensitivity analysis, FEFLOW, scenario analysis, Pakistan