Assessment of conformity to demarcated environmentally sensitive areas in land use plans: The case of Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

Environmentally sensitive areas such as lands demarcated for urban green infrastructure and regional forest reserves by urban and regional plans are crucial to be protected, due to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural services they provide. However, such environmentally sensitive areas are threatened by various human activities, including urban land dynamics. This study, therefore, aims to deploy scenario alternatives to predict and evaluate the environmental impacts of the possible future urban land dynamics in environmentally sensitive areas to support the core of the Strategic Environmental Assessment process for sustainable urban and regional development planning and policy. The study deployed Geographic Information Systems, existing land-cover maps, land-use plans, calibrated and validated land-use/land-cover model, and scenario alternatives to predict the possible future urban and regional land dynamics using the Markov model. Experts’ judgement, based on a matrix method of environmental impact magnitude and environmental sensitivity, was used to define environmental impact significance. In so doing, the environmental impact magnitude in the environmentally sensitive area is categorised into very low (>0% <5%), low (≥5% <10%), medium (≥10% <15%), high (≥15% <20%), and very high (≥20%). Key findings showed a significant and non-significant environmental impact of the possible future urban dynamics in environmentally sensitive areas associated with the business-as-usual scenario and alternative scenarios, respectively. The information from this study is useful to support decision makers in addressing problems associated with the applied Strategic Environmental Assessment process and land-use planning in sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the Global South.