A futures study into identifying the driving forces in neighbourhood-based management, using good urban governance: The case of Region 2 in Tabriz, Iran

Abstract

This article investigates the use of futures studies to predict the implemention of a new approach to neighbourhood-based management, emphasising good urban governance components in the planning and management of the Tabriz metropolis, Iran. Using a qualititative approach, the Delphi technique, comprising two rounds, was used to identify the initial and key factors that affect the realisation of  neighbourhoodbased management. Using questionnaires, in Round 1, participants answered one question on what they predict the key factors for good urban governance are and, in Round 2, they weighted the 48 identified initial factors from Round 1 in a matrix, on an 4-point Likert scale, to determine the influence on each factor. Cross-impact analysis of the influence data were extracted by MICMAC software and results showed 17 driving forces (eight in accountability, five in equity, two in transparency and one in participation) that will predict the realisation of good neighbourhood-based management in the planning and management of the Tabriz metropolis. Findings
showed that futures studies can be used as a new approach to accurately identify the driving forces for good urban governance with the realistic use of the capabilities of the community.

Keywords: Cross-impact analysis, Delphi technique, futures studies, good urban governance, Iran, neighbourhood-based management,  structural analysis