Die invloed van klimaatverandering op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad en voorgestelde aanpassings

Abstract

Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die effek van klimaatverandering op die Suid- Afrikaanse stad te ondersoek en toepaslike maatreëls aan die hand te doen, gebaseer op die spesifieke klimaatstreek. Met toenemende klimaatverandering word dit al hoe belangriker dat Suid-Afrikaanse stede veerkragtig (resilient) moet wees. Onlangs is nuwe klimaat- en energiekaarte by die WNNR geproduseer om die huidige SANS 204 (2011) Suid-Afrikaanse Nasionale Boustandaard ses sonekaart te vervang. Ten einde die langtermyn toepaslikheid van die kaart te verseker, is daar bo en behalwe die gebruik van historiese klimaatdata ook data oor klimaatverandering in berekening gebring om die kaart te skep. ʼn A2 klimaatverandering van die Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) vir die periode 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht, Landman, Engelbrecht, Landman, Bopape, Roux, McGregor & Thatcher, 2011: 649) is gebruik. ʼn A2 scenario kan beskryf word as besigheid soos gewoon. Volgens onlangse navorsing kan suidelike Afrika ʼn temperatuurstyging van tussen 4°C tot 6°C verwag in die westelike warm woestyngebiede van suidelike Afrika (Engelbrecht & Engelbrecht, 2016: 247-261). Terselfdertyd verhoog die hoeveelheid energie in die atmosfeer wat lei tot ʼn verhoogde intensiteit van storms (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688). Die toenemende verwarming sal ʼn groot impak op stede hê waar die sogenaamde Stedelike Hitte Eiland (SHE)-effek veroorsaak dat die stede heelwat warmer word as die omliggende landelike gebiede. Al bogenoemde faktore toon aan dat klimaatverandering ʼn aansienlike impak op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad sal hê.

Sleutelwoorde: Klimaatverandering, stede, Suid-Afrika

English Title: The impact of climate change on the South African city and recommended mitigating measures

English Abstract

The purpose of this article is to research the effect of climate change on the South African city and to recommend appropriate measures, based on the specific climatic zone. With increased climate change, it is getting increasingly important that the South African city should be resilient. Recently, the CSIR produced new climate and energy maps to replace the SANS 204 (2011) South African National Building Standards six zone climatic region map. To ensure the long-term applicability of the new climate map, it was decided that, over and above the use of historic climatic data, climate change should also be considered. An A2 climate change scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht et al., 2011: 649) was used. An A2 scenario can be described as business as usual. Recent research predicts that southern Africa can expect a temperature increase of between 4°C to 6°C in hot western dessert areas (Engelbrecht & Engelbrecht, 2016: 247-261). Simultaneously, the amount of energy in the atmosphere increases, causing higher intensity storms (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688). The significant warming will have a severe impact on cities where the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) causes cities to be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. These factors indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on the southern African city.

Keywords: Climate change, cities, South Africa