Human-wildlife conflicts in a changing climate regime: a multidimensional perspective in Swagaswaga Game Reserve, Tanzania

Abstract

This study examines the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on human-wildlife conflicts in Swagaswaga Game Reserve, Tanzania. A mixed research design employing both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods—including semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews—was used. Rainfall and temperature data for the past 30 years were obtained from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority. Quantitative data were analysed using IBM SPSS (V26), in which the Chi-square test was performed to test the association between predictors and the status of human-wildlife conflicts. A binary logistic regression model was used to determine the extent to which independent factors were associated with human-wildlife conflicts. Meteorological data on rainfall and temperature were analysed using Excel to perform a simple regression analysis. Qualitative data were analysed using the content analysis technique. The study revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors influenced conflicts. As temperature increased significantly, evapotranspiration and scarcity of resources also increased, leading to a decline in crop yield, accelerated human-wildlife conflicts due to resource competition between wildlife and communities around protected areas. Rainfall distribution, onset, and cessation were unpredictable. Additionally, human-wildlife conflicts are significantly associated with human population growth, while encroachment and reserve expansion influenced human-wildlife conflicts, though their impacts were not significant. Conclusively, climate change and rapid human population growth accelerated encroachment, causing wildlife survival threats and intensifying human-wildlife conflicts. The study recommends that the government should develop a comprehensive land use plan involving local communities in decision-making to adapt to the impacts of climate change on wildlife habitats and livelihoods.