Perceived and observed climatic risks and adaptation responses in agro-pastoral systems of Tanzania

Abstract

Understanding adaptation strategies requires that risks and vulnerability are identified and analyzed. This study sought to understand adaptation strategies for the agro-pastoral system under current risks and vulnerability to climate change in Tanzania. A sample of 377 respondents was taken across the four-point transect from the Morogoro region in the Eastern to the Kigoma region in the Western parts of Tanzania. The study compared the perceptions of the risks and vulnerability of agro-pastoralists with quantitative trends from climatic data obtained from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority. Indicators of risks and vulnerability to climate change across the transect were considered as a proxy for perceptions. They included a temperature rise and an increase in extreme events such as recurrent droughts, floods, and diseases. Analysis by Mann–Kendall trend test revealed a statistically significant decrease in annual rainfall in dry-subhumid (ZMK = -2.039) and a significant increase in seasonal rainfall in the semi-arid zone (ZMK =1.712). The comparative analysis reveals the mismatch between perceptions and trends of risks and vulnerability in understanding and implementing adaptation strategies. Consequently, the mismatch may provide inadequate information to agro-pastoralists in designing and implementing plausible adaptation strategies. In this regard, collaborative data collection and management have the potential to inform decisions about risk reduction strategies across agroecological zones, such as adjustments in planting dates and methods, holding different livestock types, and splitting herds into sub-herds. Furthermore, the study calls for further exploration that would redefine existing adaptation strategies with consideration of contexts and location.