Statistical analysis and modelling of the prevalence of malaria in Nyasa district; Tanzania

Abstract

Background: Demographic, social economic factors influencing the prevalence of Malaria in Nyasa District and the level of knowledge attitude and prevention on malaria disease incurred by the domicile of Nyasa district.

Objective: The demographic conditions affecting the spread of malaria and precautions they take to prevent the disease. Determine the factors affecting the malaria gender-wise.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using questionnaire on 350 householders selected randomly from two distinguishable wards of Nyasa municipal, Tanzania. Prevalence, incidence, factor analysis to identify knowledge and attitude, binary logistic model on general and gender-wise identifying the significant factors were traced out. Using SPSS 14.5 software model and its adequacy, factors and its validity are verified.

Results: The prevalence rate of malaria in Nyaza is 24.9%, while it is 16.7% in the hills and 36% in sea shores. The ratio of affecting malaria among males and female is 41: 47 and among poor: middle class: Upper class =9.3 :1:.001. The government provide bed nets for 64.1% but 94% are not getting free hospital facilities. About 90% know that malaria is a transmitting killer disease and its symptoms, preventive measures and mosquito breeding timings. Using bed nets (95%), removing stagnant water (71.7%) and cleaning the environment (62%) are the general measures preferred by people. 17% prefer burning coils or repellents and 28% keep meshes to doors and windows. Child malaria was diagnosed by 61.4% families, If the number of family members is more than 3, the chance for affecting malaria is 0.62, There is a need for hospital stay in many malaria patients (Male 38.8% and Female 47.7%). 95% pregnant woman take hospital advice of which 50% go only in the third month and about 60% are going to know the condition of fetus and mother as well as prevent CDs. 75% of malaria-affected people belong to informal or primary education groups, 89% are poor and 10% are middle-class people. Knowledge of prevention and control of malaria depends on 3 factors use, official service, and self-awareness.  Similarly, attitude towards prevention and control also depends on 3 factors- seriousness, lack of awareness, and practicability. Binary logistic model on affecting malaria depends on 5 significant variables – altitude of land, sex, age, income, education

Conclusion: The prevalence of malaria is moderately high in Nyasa compared to the national prevalence rate. Women and children are mostly affected by the disease. Most dwellers were aware of the seriousness of the disease and using bed nets as a preventive measure. People are also keen to destroy stagnant water sources and clean the premises to keep away grass and bushes. The important dependent demographic factors for the incidence of malaria were sex, age, depriving conditions of family, lack of sufficient education and the location of areas like seashores or hills.