Stuctural vector autoregressive modeling of some factors that affect the economic growth in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates how Agriculture, External debt, Importation and Exportation affects the economic growth of Nigeria over the period of 1979-2019 using an annual time series data. A structural vector autoregressive model was used in determining the short and long run pattern. Result from the study shows that there exists a positive relationship between agriculture and the Real Gross Domestic Product on the Nigerian economy. Importation has a positive relationship at the initial period while on the long period exhibit a negative relationship with RGDP. External debt also experienced a negative relationship at the initial period while on the long run exhibit a negative relationship with RGDP. The result from the structural variance decomposition shows that agriculture and importation contribute more variability to RGDP in Nigeria. The study however recommends that the government should come up with a policy that focus on the alternative source of its revenue by focusing more on agriculture and encourage export and strict laws on import diversification in the area of agriculture, agro-investment, and agro-allied industries, oil allied industries which would help improve Real GDP growth in Nigerian economy.