Forecasting Water Demand and Supply of China for 2025

Abstract

Water resource is the most critical resource; it is the basic condition of human survival, production and maintaining a good ecological environment. Water is a kind of renewable resources, but China is faced with a serious shortage of freshwater because of its huge population. In this paper, two models are built to make a forecast of water demand and supply of China in 2025. These two forecasting models for water demand and supply based on the algorithm of Double Exponential Smoothing. Based on the results of these models, the water amount of the nation and every province is obvious and two advices are proposed for China government makes any water strategy to meet the water demand of China in 2025, such as building desalination plants in the coastal provinces which are lack of water, and meanwhile, more water diversion projects should be constructed between different provinces in the middle of China.

Key words: Double Exponential Smoothing, Demand forecast, Math models, Water Strategy