Analysis of trends in SMART Nutrition Survey data from South Sudan between 2004 and 2016

Abstract

Introduction: Emergency levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) persist in former Northern Bar el Ghazal State in South Sudan despite ongoing interventions. Reasons for long-term trends in GAM in South Sudan have not been explored despite decades of nutrition and health interventions.

Objective: This project aimed to identify and analyse changes in patterns of malnutrition and key factors associated with malnutrition from 2004 to 2016.

Methods: Secondary data analysis was carried out using Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART) nutrition surveys. Anthropometric data collected from children under five years of age from 2004 to 2016 were analysed to estimate seasonal differences in the prevalence of GAM (weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) <-2) and severe acute malnutrition (WHZ <-3). Risk factors for GAM were explored using data collected in 2014 and 2015 and analysed using logistic regression. Adjusted Wald tests investigated which variables were associated with GAM (p<0.05).

Results: In Aweil West and North a reduction in GAM was observed between September 2004 (21.0%, CI 18.2-23.9) and November 2009 (16.2%, CI: 13.7-18.9). However, this apparent decline likely reflects a seasonal difference because the 5-year overall mean GAM was 20.4% (SD: 0.403) and 17.5% (SD: 0.380) in pre- and postharvest seasons respectively. In multivariable linear regression modelling, not having been sick in the past two weeks (aOR 0.78, 95% CI 0.61, 0.99, p=0.047), and not having consumed juice (aOR 0.67, 95% CI 0.45, 0.99, p=0.045) were protective against GAM after adjusting for all potential confounders.

Conclusion: This study highlights the impact of instability on the nutritional status of a generation, with the high prevalence of GAM and severe acute malnutrition remaining unchanged since 2004. Regular collection of representative nutrition data is useful to inform decision making. The results of this study suggest that a focus on care seeking behaviours and hygiene practices would be beneficial. The persistent prevalence of GAM identifies a need, not just for nutrition programmes but also effective prevention programmes.

Keywords: malnutrition, South Sudan, Aweil, illness, juice, SMART survey