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Estimating the burden of disease attributable to lead exposure in South Africa in 2000


R Norman
A Mathee
B Barnes
L van der Merwe
D Bradshaw
South African Comparitive Risk Assessment Collaboration Grou

Abstract



Objectives. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to lead
exposure in South Africa in 2000.
Design. World Health Organization comparative risk
assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Recent
community studies were used to derive mean blood lead
concentrations in adults and children in urban and rural areas.
Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied
to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease
categories for South Africa in the year 2000. Monte Carlo
simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty
analysis.
Setting. South Africa.
Subjects. Children under 5 and adults 30 years and older.
Outcome measures. Cardiovascular mortality and disabilityadjusted
life years (DALYs) in adults 30 years and older and
mild mental disability DALYs in children under 5 years.
Results. Lead exposure was estimated to cause 1 428 deaths
(95% uncertainty interval 1 086-1 772) or 0.27% (95%
uncertainty interval: 0.21 - 0.34%) of all deaths in South
Africa in 2000. Burden of disease attributed to lead exposure
was dominated by mild mental disability in young children,
accounting for 75% of the total 58 939 (95% uncertainty interval
55 413 - 62 500) attributable DALYs. Cardiovascular disease in
adults accounted for the remainder of the burden.
Conclusions. Even with the phasing out of leaded petrol,
exposure to lead from its ongoing addition to paint, paraoccupational
exposure and its use in backyard ‘cottage
industries' will continue to be an important public health
hazard in South Africa for decades. Young children, especially
those from disadvantaged communities, remain particularly
vulnerable to lead exposure and poisoning.

South African Medical Journal Vol. 97 (8) Part 2 2007: pp. 773-780

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eISSN: 2078-5135
print ISSN: 0256-9574