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Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
Abstract
We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus
(HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate
between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation.
The model world is the conceptual realm in which we explicitly declare the rules – usually
some simplification of ‘real world’ processes as we understand them. Computing details of
informative scenarios in these model worlds is a task requiring specialist knowledge, but all
other aspects of the modelling process, from describing the model world to identifying the
scenarios and interpreting model outputs, should be understandable to anyone with an
interest in the epidemic.
