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Aug 6, 2024Keywords:
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Assessing the Impact of Spatial Planning on the Spread of COVID-19 within Kampala City
Abstract
Spatial planning has previously had an impact on the dynamics of pandemics. However, its influence on the spread of COVID-19 has not been explored. This research therefore focused on assessing the impact of spatial planning on the spread of COVID-19 in Kampala City. The research was based on the confirmed COVID-19 cases registered between 21 March 2020 and 27 March 2021 and was conducted in conjunction with the spatial analytical methods of the Global Moran’s Index, Anselin’s Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) and the Geographically Weighted Regression model (GWR). Global Moran’s I and Anselin’s LISA were used to determine the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases. The GWR was used to model the relationship between conformance to spatial planning and the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases. Results attained through these methods showed a random distribution of cases, with LISA results indicating parishes located in the Central Division as major disease risk sites of COVID-19. Furthermore, results from the GWR revealed a negative relationship, with an R2 value of 0.51, between spatial planning and the spatial distribution of Covid-19. This means that variations in spatial planning initiatives could explain 51 per cent of the variations in COVID-19 cases in Kampala City. Therefore, to change Kampala into a pandemic-resilient city, there is a need to develop appropriate compact spatial planning designs, especially in the parishes of Nakasero 1, Nakasero 11, Nakasero III, and Kagugube.
