Temporal Characterization of Land Use Change and Land-scape Processes in Informal Settlements in the City of Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract

This study conducted a Land Use Change (LUC) analysis on informal settlements in Cape Town, South Africa, using bi-temporal steps, S1 (2010) and S2 (2016), to characterize land use (LU) conversions and landscape processes for informed policymaking. Utilizing the 2011 national land cover dataset and post-classification methods, two LU datasets and maps, D1 for S1 and D2 for S2, were derived. These classifications achieved an overall accuracy exceeding 95%, with Kappa coefficients above 0.9. The analysis employed change trajectories and conversion labels to evaluate LU changes and landscape dynamics, providing a thematic representation of LUC within informal settlements. Landscape reclamation processes, including abandonment, urban development, and RDP (Reconstruction and Development Programme) development, constituted approximately five percent of the total LU conversions, while degradation processes like persistence and intensification dominated, affecting approximately 93% of the area. Partial reclamation, notably through interspersed RDP (RDPi), accounted for about two percent of conversions. These findings highlight the importance of accurate and timely LUC data reporting in informal settlements to address socioeconomic challenges effectively and support policy decisions to enhance these communities' physical and socioeconomic infrastructure.