Dealing with the three facets of uncertainty in planning: evidences from a processual study on basic education in Rwanda

Abstract

Since the emergence of management as a science in the early years of the twentieth century, the concept of planning is naturally associated with rational anticipation of future course of actions. Critical theories showed that this ideal type of planning is rarely functional in real the world as complex organizations’ future behaviors are hardly predictable. But their critiques pointed out in different directions, offering the impression that the purposes of planning are contradictory and irreconcilable. Champions of incrementalism conceptualize planning as a process of small sized adjustments to new pieces of information. Contingent theorists conceive planning as an adaptation to environmental change and complexity. Communicative theorists foresee planning as a consensus-building in a context of divergent interests. Action theorists go far and envisage planning as a symbolic rationalization of previous choices and, finally the resource-dependence theorists figure planning as a legitimating strategy aiming at increasing credibility and attracting external resources. This article posits that there is a common ground to these apparently contradictory theoretical perspectives, since they attempt to tackle three facets of uncertainty in planning: environmental, political and financial uncertainty. Furthermore, it conceptualizes different dimensions each of the three types of uncertainty could take in real planning and investigates them through an in-depth processual study on basic education in Rwanda.

Key concepts: basic education, planning, uncertainty, Rwanda