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Grosses coupures ou billets à valeur faciale adaptée ? Analyse retrospective de la réforme de l’éventail fiduciaire congolais en 2012 et leçons
Abstract
Dans la mémoire collective congolaise, l’injection de nouveaux billets, surtout à valeur faciale élevée, est un signe avant-coureur d’une inflation effrénée et d’une dépréciation de la monnaie nationale. Les expériences malheureuses des années 1990 sont à l’origine de l’égalité psychologique « grosses coupures = hausse des prix ». Pourtant, l’adaptation de l’éventail fiduciaire intervenu en 2012 a montré que l’introduction méthodique d’une nouvelle gamme de papier-monnaie peut être indolore pour l’économie et procurer à cette dernière certains avantages. Plus de dix ans après ce succès, cet article revient sur les stratégies mises en place à l’époque pour y parvenir. Il met en exergue la consolidation de la stabilité macroéconomique et une stratégie de communication grâce auxquelles les anticipations des agents économiques ont cessé d’être rétrospectives pour devenir prospectives.
English title: High-denomination bills or value-adjusted billes? Reprospective analysis of the reform of the congolese range of banknotes in 2012 and lessons to be learned.
In the Congolese collective memory, the injection of new banknotes, especially with high face value, is a harbinger of rampant inflation and a depreciation of the national currency. The unfortunate experiences of the 1990s are at the origin of the psychological equality “big bills = rising prices”. However, the adaptation of the fiduciary range that took place in 2012 showed that the methodical introduction of a new range of paper money can be painless for the economy and provide it with certain advantages. More than ten years after this success, this article reviews the strategies put in place at the time to achieve it. It highlights the consolidation of macroeconomic stability and a communication strategy thanks to which the expectations of economic agents have ceased to be retrospective to become forward- looking.
