Unexpected low burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in sub-Saharan Africa region despite disastrous predictions: reasons and perspectives

Abstract

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the development of a highly contagious disease called coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Ten months after the onset of the pandemic, America and Europe remain the most affected regions. Initially, experts predicted that Africa, the poorest continent with the most vulnerable population and health system, would be greatly affected by the ongoing outbreak. However, 240days after the first confirmed case, Africa is among the least affected region, with lower than expected incident cases and mortality. In this review, we discuss possible explanations and reasons for this unexpected low burden of COVID-19 in Africa. We focus on the characteristics of the virus, specificities of the sub-Saharan African population and local environment.