Possible future trajectory of COVID-19: emphasis on Africa

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused morbidity and mortality in many countries. COVID-19 has also negatively affected the economy of several nations. The dynamics of interaction between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and host, and possible evolution of the virus into more virulent strains pose a threat to global eradication. With the advent of vaccination in most countries, vaccine hesitancy, especially in Africa, is expected to reduce. We also believe that the COVID-19 vaccine would have substantial impact on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths. A predictor model for COVID-19 infection pattern through to 2025 suggests that recurrent outbreaks are likely to occur. There is a prediction that Africa would not fully recover from the economic crises posed by the pandemic; nonetheless, we expect that economic activities on the continent will improve as countries undertake mass vaccinations and populace attain herd immunity. The growth of e-commerce has been remarkable during the pandemic and we don´t expect trend to decline anytime soon. The pandemic has led to technology and digital platform utilization and/or improvement, which invariably has the tendency to improve quality of lives in the future. These include effective big data monitoring, online shopping, among others. Our future trajectory for recurrent waves of COVID-19 is that these may occur in winter months in temperate climates. We believe that COVID-19 has strengthened Africa´s resilience to future pandemics.