Assessing the accuracy of plotless density estimators using census counts to refine population estimates of the vultures of Kruger National Park

Abstract

Breeding population estimates for three vulture species in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, were made in 2013 using data from aerial censuses and a plotless density estimator (PDE). PDEs are distance-based methods used to assess sparse populations unsuitable for plot-based methods. A correction factor was applied to the 2013 estimates to reflect the difference between the survey counts and the PDE figures. We flew additional censuses across most of KNP and counted all visible nests to assess the 2013 estimates. Survey counts were within 95% confidence limits of corrected PDE estimates for White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus (count: 892; estimate: 904 [95% CI ±162]), at the limit of confidence for White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (count: 48; estimate: 60 [±13]) and outside confidence limits for Lappet-faced Vulture Torgos tracheliotos (count: 44; estimate: 78 [±18]). Uncorrected PDE estimates accurately reflected White-headed and Lappet-faced Vulture nest counts. The clustered patterns of White-backed Vulture nests and dispersed patterns of White-headed and Lappet-faced Vulture nests offer an explanation for these results and means that corrected PDE densities are inaccurate for estimating dispersed nests but accurate for estimating clustered nests. Using PDE methods, aerial surveys over ~35% of KNP are probably sufficient to assess changes in these vulture populations over time. Our results highlight these globally important breeding populations.

Keywords: aerial survey, Kruger National Park, population estimates, vultures