Using independent nest survey data to validate changes in reporting rates of Martial Eagles between the Southern African Bird Atlas Project 1 and 2

Abstract

Repeat monitoring is vital to measure biodiversity change. However, monitoring protocols may change, as survey techniques improve or different questions are asked. Such modifications may cause difficulties when examining changes in wildlife populations. The Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP) 1 and 2 are repeat national bird surveys undertaken 20 years apart. These surveys therefore offer unrivalled potential to examine bird population changes in an African context. However, changes in protocols, both spatially and temporally, between the two surveys have raised concerns over using these data to infer population changes. In this study we use independent nest survey data to test whether changes in reporting rates of Martial Eagles in the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park between the two SABAP surveys were reflected in real change in numbers of nesting pairs. From 11 quarter degree squares (QDS), covering c. 8 000 km², both SABAP and nest surveys suggested a near identical 44% decline. Levels of agreement were weaker at the individual QDS scale, although in 67% of cases the direction of change was the same using both surveys. These results suggest that comparisons in the reporting rates between SABAP 1 and SABAP 2 accurately reflect changes in the breeding population size of this species.

Keywords: bird atlas, monitoring, population decline, protected area, raptor