Analysis of the same day of the week increases in peak electricity demand in South Africa

Abstract

Modelling of the same day of the week increases in peak electricity demand using the Gener- alized Pareto-type (GP-type) distribution is discussed. The GP-type distribution discussed in this paper has one parameter to estimate and as such, it is referred to as the Generalized Single Pareto (GSP). The data is from Eskom, South Africa's power utility company and is for the years 2000 to 2011. A comparative analysis is done with a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Although both the GSP and the GPD t the data, the use of the GSP is easier since it has only one parameter to estimate instead of two as is the case with the GPD. Modelling of the same day of the week increases in peak electricity  demand improves the reliability of a power network if an accurate assessment of the level and frequency of future extreme load forecasts is carried out.

Key words: Gibbs sampling, generalized single pareto, generalized pareto distribution, pareto quantile plot.