How healthy are the rhinoceros populations in the Hluhluwe-iMfolosi Park?

Abstract

Arising from a study conducted in the Hluhluwe-iMfolosi Park by the author in the late nineties, a method is proposed for improving the estimate of the size of a wildlife population by combining data from current and past surveys. The method is based on a simple state space model which takes into account the (unknown) birth rate in the population and all known losses (mortalities and relocations) and gains (introductions) in the population between successive surveys, as well as the errors in the survey estimates. The method is applied
to the White- and Black Rhinoceros populations in the Hluhluwe-iMfolosi Park and tentative conclusions are drawn on the health of these two populations.

Key words: State-space model, survey errors, birth rate, mortalities, rhinoceros.