Modelling household responses to energy effciency interventions via system dynamics and survey data

Abstract

An application of building a system dynamics model of the way households might respond to interventions aimed at reducing energy consumption (specically the use of electricity) is described in this paper. A literature review of past research is used to build an initial integrated model of household consumption, and this model is used to generate a small number of research hypotheses about how households possessing dierent characteristics might react to various types of interventions. These hypotheses are tested using data gathered from an effciency intervention conducted in a town in the South African Western Cape in which households were able to exchange regular light bulbs for more effcient compact
uorescent lamp light bulbs. Our experiences are (a) that a system dynamics approach proved useful in advancing a non-traditional point of view for which, for historical and economic reasons, data were not abundantly available; (b) that, in areas where traditional models are heavily quantitative, some scepticism to a system dynamics model may be expected; and (c) that a statistical comparison of model results by means of empirical data may be an eective tool in reducing such scepticism.

Key words: Energy sector, system dynamics.