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Development of a mathematical model for managing magnitude and risk factors of injuries
Abstract
A mathematical model was developed for managing m~gnitude and risk · factors of injuries in a manufacturing industry employing System Dynamics (SD) approach. Data were collected using an injury and illness investigation register. These were used to estimate and validate the parameters of the model. The principle of SD was employed to identify. the relevant risk management safety;_related components and their interrelationships. Results obtained from the experimenlal data depict a random periodic upwards and downwards trend in the magnitude of injuries; whereas the· predicted injuries yielded an exponential decay in the number of injuries occurrence. The means and standard deviations of the observed and predicted injuries were 27 and 9.08; and 26 and 6.61 respectively. The corresponding values for observed and predicted preventions were 18 and 9.08; and 19 and 8.48 respectively. A comparison of pr~dicted and observed injuries depict that the model _is useful for providing a decision support and predicting the main variables required for managing magnitude and risk factors of injuries in a bottling plant.
Keywords: System dynamics, modeling, injury investigation, simulation, safety ma.nagement
