Analysis of the effect of climate change on the production of okra in Enugu State, Nigeria: 1999-2014

Abstract

Climate change has positive and negative effects on crop production in Nigeria. The study analysed the effect of climate change on the production of okra in Enugu state, Nigeria (1999-2014) using secondary data collected from Enugu state Agricultural Development Programme (ENADEP) and Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Akanu-Ibiam International Airport for the period of sixteen years. Specifically, the study determined trends of okra yields, trends of climate variables, onset and cessation of rainfall, and effect of climate change on okra yields in the study area. Results indicated an increasing trend of okra yields in the area. Rainfall and evaporation rates decreased within the period under investigation as well as relative humidity within the same period as seen from their negative intercepts. The least and highest rainfall was seen in 2001 and 2003 respectively. Though there was an increase in okra yields, but yields increased with a decrease in rainfall as observed from the trend analysis. Similarly, onset and cessation of rainfall was witnessed in the months of April and November respectively. Also the Double log results with the R2 values of 0.774 indicated that seventy-seven percent (77%) of the fluctuations in the yields of okra was accounted for by the explanatory variables included in the model. The coefficients of Rainfall amount (0.288), relative humidity (0.257) and evaporation rates (0.273) were positively related to the yields of okra in the area, hence, the positive influence of abiotic factor in enhancing crop yields, whereas temperature maximum was negatively related to yields of okra. Therefore, climate change in the form of changes in its elements was significantly influencing the production of okra in the study area. The study recommends planting of resistant and quick maturing varieties especially in the midst of climate change.