Development of a model for prediction of deformation in blacksmith production of mould board ploughshare pre-form

Abstract

The process of producing implements by manual methods such as blacksmithing is laborious, time consuming. Despite these drawbacks, the technology remains one of the major sources of producing simple and cheaper tools and implements for many communities. This paper presents a mathematical model developed to predict and optimize the quantum of work in form of the deformation of the metal pre-form, needed by the blacksmith during the production of a mould board ploughshare. A blacksmith with body mass index of 26.5 kg/m² was used for the experiment to test the model. The model was analyzed using factorial design and validated using Taguchi design and regression analysis. Pre-form deformation of 14.57 x10^-06 m and 12.42 x 10^-06 m were obtained using factorial and Taguchi designs respectively within an average production time of 24 minutes. The results of regression analysis on the data generated using full factorial design, indicate that all constants in the regression equation were significant with p < 0.01, except the size of hammer with p = 1.00. The results showed that the model is adequate to predict the deformation of the mould board ploughshare with accuracy of R-Sq = 98.4% R-Sq (adj) = 98.2% and error of 0.2% at 95% confidence level. The model is expected to assist in the reduction of fatigue resulting from arbitrary choice of hammer size, inappropriate height as well as unnecessary number of blows and consequently leading to improved productivity in the areas of production of agricultural, industrial and domestic tools to meet local needs.