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Time Series Analysis of Monthly Issuance of Phytosanitary Certificates for Plants and Plant Materials in Post-Entry Quarantine, Surveillance and Diagnostic Station, in Nigeria
Abstract
Nigeria Agricultural Quarantine Service (NAQS) has the sole national mandate to carry out phytosanitary activities at various points of entry into Nigeria. It is the competent authority that issues Plant Health or Phytosanitary Certificates (PC) to prevent the introduction of foreign pests to other countries through the export of plant materials. However, there is limited information on the trend of issuance of PCs essential for informed decisions in planning for improving the efficiency of PCs in mitigating foreign pests across countries. This study examined the issuance of PCs at the Post-Entry Quarantine, Surveillance and Diagnostic Station (PEQSDS), NAQS Ibadan, using a Time Series method. The monthly PC issuance dataset spanning January 2012 to July 2022 was analysed, and the ARIMA model was fitted. Based on the results of the forecast measures of the study, ARMA (5, 8) was selected as the best model for forecasting the number of PCs. Monthly fluctuation of issued PCs was observed. The forecasted values indicate that the number of issued PCs will fluctuate throughout the subsequent years. Investigation into the causes of the erratic issuance of PCs is necessary. The study recommends among others, the need for NAQS to maintain constant surveillance, keep employees on high alert and consider the electronic phytosanitary certification process for more productive phytosanitary activities to reduce pest incursion and facilitate trade.
