Analysis of temperature trend as an indicator of climate change using land surface temperature (LST) and meteorological data in Akure, southwest Nigeria

Abstract

The study aims to examine the Temperature trend as a determinant of climate change in Southwest Nigeria. Monthly Climatic Data for the study was retrieved from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and Landsat Satellite imageries obtained from United State Geological Survey (USGS). This study presented a descriptive and inferential analysis of temperature in Akure, Nigeria for a period of 31–year (1990 to 2020). The data were subjected to statistical analysis using mean, standardized temperature, decadal and time series. The result revealed increase in observed temperature above the standardized temperature (1981 to 2010). At the end of the first decade (2000), the temperature rose above normal by 1.0°C, while at the end of second decade (2010) and third decades (2020), the temperature increased by 1.9°C and 1.6°C respectively. The findings also revealed that the maximum and minimum temperature of the Satellite Land Surface Temperature increases with decades. In the same vein, the average LST increases from the base year (1990) (26.4°C), to 27.2°C, 27.3°C, and 28.3°C in the year 2000,2010 and 2020 respectively. The decadal increase was 0.8°C (3.0%) between 1990 and 2000; 0.1°C (0.4%) between 2000 and 2010; and 0.1°C (3.6%). The time series showed a trend variation while the time plot showed irregular pattern in the data series. Minimum and maximum temperature series for Akure attained stationarity since p-value (0.001) for the series are less than 5% level of significance. Temperature values is predicted to be in its highest every February of the forecasted years in Akure with February 2022 having the highest forecasted temperature of 34.70C. The indication of these finding is attestation to climate change and to prepare the stake holders to be well prepare to avert the danger of global warming. Further study can be conducted on rainfall variation in the study area.