Climate change and agriculture: Modelling the impact of carbon dioxide emission on cereal yield in Nigeria (1961 - 2018)

Abstract

Amidst increasing evidence of climate change and its impacts on food insecurity and economic growth, the study assessed Climate change and Agriculture nexus: Modelling the impact of Carbon dioxide emission on Cereal yield in Nigeria (1961 - 2018) with a view to assessing the impact of carbon dioxide emission (Co₂) on Cereal production and to contribute to the body of knowledge. The study utilized secondary data from FAOSTAT. The study utilized annual data spanning from 1961-2018 of Carbon emission, Cereal yield and Gross Domestic Product growth. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) analysis was used to make decisions on whether the variables were stationary or not. Autoregressive distributed lag method of estimation was used to examine the short-run and long-run effect of carbon emission on Cereal crop yield or performance in Nigeria. The result of the short-run model of the ARDL revealed that there was a negative relationship (-0.216025) between Carbon emission and Cereal yield in Nigeria and it’s statistically significant at 5% level of significance while the long-run model of the ARDL revealed a direct relationship (0.175135) between Cereals yields and carbon emissions (CO₂), with impact statistically significant. The study concluded that there is direct relationship between Carbon dioxide emission and Cereals yields. The study recommended that efforts should be made to reduce the amount CO₂ or determine the optimal value of CO₂ required in the atmosphere to support plant photosynthesis for future crop production especially in low income countries with a relatively high population.