Trend confidence intervals of parameters required for crop growth model (aquacrop) of Epe Lagos State Nigeria

Abstract

The development of various models such as Aquacrop gives clue to climate smart agriculture. Climatic daily data used include radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and precipitation, and they were sourced from the archive of NASA/POWER SRB/ FLASH flux from 1982 to 2018. All the parameters considered have 99 % and 95 % positive confidence intervals and significance levels with Sen’s estimates of 16.92 MJ/M2 .day, 28.90^oC, 23.53^oC, 1.55 m/s, 85.11 % and 1559.81 mm for
radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and precipitation with the mean values of 16.90 MJ/M² .day, 28.13^oC, 22.91^oC, 1.51 m/s, 82.74 % and 1558.31 mm respectively. Radiation, maximum temperature and wind speed had 44 %, 91 % and 9 % negative down ward trends respectively, while minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation have 9 %, 23 % and 139 % positive upward trends respectively as well. Findings show that increase in precipitation over the years keep the water level relatively stable and provides good natural habitat for fishes, aquatic lives and exotic forestry species. The slope gradients were greater than the mean values for all the parameters which signifies strength and fair weather for agricultural activities. The trend patterns show while agricultural activities such as fishing activity and crop production thrive in the study area.

Keywords: AquaCrop, Climatic Parameters, Confidence Intervals, FAO, Sen’s slope and Trend Statistics