Contribution of timber exports to economic growth in Nigeria: an econometric analysis

Abstract

The paper examined the contribution of timber exports to the economic growth in Nigeria, using an econometric approach. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Johansen Co-integration techniques were respectively used to test for unit root and examine the relationship between the variables used. In addition, Granger causality approach was used to determine the direction of causality between variables. Regression analysis was conducted to determine the significance of timber exports to the Nigerian economy. The results of the unit root test indicate that the variables were non-stationary at their level form, but after first differencing, they became stationary. Johansen co-integration test shows that there is at least one co-integrating equation among the variables, while the regression analysis shows that timber export makes significant contribution to the gross domestic product of Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that policies aimed at effectively and appropriately financing forestry sector that produces timber for export should be adequately formulated and implemented by government in order to increase timber output as well as timber for sustainable timber export.

Keywords: Timber, unit root, Nigeria, Johansen co-integration, gross domestic product, Granger Causality