A mathematical model for the control of cholera outbreak in Nigeria

Abstract

This study focuses on the development of a mathematical model to address the dynamics of cholera transmission in Nigeria, a country frequently plagued by cholera outbreaks due to several socio-environmental factors. The mathematical model incorporates treatment mechanisms and aims to provide a framework for controlling the disease. We obtained the basic reproduction number (R₀ ), which determined the conditions for local and global asymptotic stability of the model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the impact of various parameters on R₀ , revealing that contact rate between susceptible and infected individuals, as well as the transition from exposed to actively infected population, significantly influenced disease spread. Numerical simulations further support the theoretical findings, demonstrating that reducing contact between susceptible and infected individuals and enhancing the treatment rate for infected persons can effectively mitigate the cholera burden. Based on these findings, recommendations include increasing government commitment to treatment facilities, organizing public awareness campaigns on sanitation, and improving infrastructure related to water treatment, waste management, and flood control. This model provides actionable insights for managing and controlling cholera outbreaks in Nigeria.