Fuzzy Failure Probability of Transmission Pipelines in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria: The case of Third Party Activities

Abstract

We undertake the apportioning of failure possibility on twelve identified third party activities contributory to failure of transmission pipelines in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, using the concept of fuzzy possibility scores. Expert elicitation technique generates linguistic variables that are transformed using
fuzzy set theory into fuzzy possibility scores that expresses the expert belief and confidence that the identified third party activity would cause transmission pipelines to fail in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

Keywords: expert elicitation, fuzzy set, fuzzy possibility score.