An application of trend analysis of some selected petroleum products

Abstract

The research is carried out to enable us to know a long term forecast of some selected petroleum products; Premium Motor spirit (PMS), House Hold Kero (HHK) and Automate Gas Oil (AGO), in Kaduna Refining and Petrochemicals Company (KPRC). And to compared the performance of two forecasting techniques (Quadratic trend and Linear Trend), where we use three deterministic measures mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD)and mean standard deviation (MSD) for evaluating the performance linear trend and quadratic trend. We found that the quadratic trend best fits the data over the study of the periods of the products.