Performance of CMIP5 models in temperature simulation over West Africa

Abstract

The performance of forty-five Global Climate Models GCMs that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) in temperature simulation is evaluated over four temperature regions of West Africa the Guinean Savannah (GS), Western Sahel (WS), Lower Sahel (LS), and Eastern Sahel (ES) by comparing the model outputs with ground observation(CRU data) for the period of 1961-2005 using Normalized Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Root Mean Square Error and Taylor diagram at different percentiles. The analyses is done to select models that best simulate the temperature with least error for application in climate projections and climate change impact over this highly vulnerable region of interest. The skillful models for temperature simulation over each region are selected and compared. The skillful models over at least two temperature regions over West Africa (twenty three out of the 45 models considered) are finally selected and suggested for applicability in future projection and climate impact studies.

Keywords: Temperature simulation, General Circulation Models, normalized mean absolute error, percentiles