Big Power 500-Year Cycles and Africa

Abstract

The last 500 to 600 years witnessed cyclical patterns of geopolitical changes as powers rose and declined in terms of world dominance. The dominant ones tended to become geopolitical ‘predators’ as they ravaged and looted victim areas and peoples. This involved a series of ‘liberations’ in which the liberated became the new dominant force doing its best to contain or suppress others who desired to acquire the same dominant position. Once in the position of dominance, however, the power becomes complacent, inward looking, and susceptible to power erosion from outside due to internal weaknesses. In the late 14^th Century, Ibn Khaldun well explained this rise and fall pattern in his Muqadimah. In those changes, Africa tended to be the victim of forces and the impact was continuously negative. Before the rise of Europe in the 15^th Century, however, Mali and China had proved their geopolitical prowess, had become complacent, and had then slid into subservience under Euro forces. The pattern started with the Europeans collectively liberating themselves from Muslim dominance in Southern Europe. The pattern turned into constant power rivalries among the Euros until the 21^st Century when China has successfully challenged Euro global dominance.