Climate change and agricultural production trends in Nigeria: implication for sustainable food production

Abstract

Climate change variability is a threat to agricultural production at both global scales. The present study evaluates the link between climate change and food security in Nigeria which is a pointer to sustainable food production. Secondary data were extracted from the database of FAO and World Bank development indicator were used to assessed the staple crops such as casaba, cowpea, maize, rice and yam. The descriptive statistics (mean standard deviation and coefficient of variation) and correction model coupled with co-integration approach were used to analyse the data. The finding revealed an inconsistency in temperature and rainfall pattern which is an evident of changing climate. The average value of 11.4 tones/hectare, 0.85tons/ha, 0.25tons/ha, 0.30tons/ha and 1.83 tons/ha for cassava, cowpea, maize, rice and yam respectively were all lower than the expected global average. The result of unit root test showed that cassava and maize output are non-stationary at their level form but stationary after differencing and there is long run relationship between the variables. The result of error correction model revealed that rainfall (β = -0.263, p<0.01) and temperature (β = -0.083, p<0.01) exert positive effect on cassava and maize respectively. However, estimated parameters (β = 0.046, p<0.01), (β = 0.081, p<0.01) and (β = 0.328, p<0.01) obtained for cowpea, rice and yam respectively showed negative relationship. Temperature showed significant and negative effect on rice and yam output. This implied that temperature and rainfall are important climatic factors that determine the growth of agricultural food crops in different ecological zones of Nigeria. The study therefore recommends environmental policies that are beneficial to crop production and facilitate climate change adaptation strategies.